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Stock Advisors

Now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 1,035 points (six percent) from its mid-September peak, the question investors are asking is “how far will she go?” For small-cap investors, the drama is greater, as the Russell 2000 Index has fallen 12.5% from its July peak. Since…

One of the oldest and most reliable ways to assess the value of the stock market is to look at its price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple. This multiple measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. P/E multiples of 15 mean investors are willing to…

As key stock indices like the S&P 500 make new highs, bullishness increases almost daily, and stock advisors are saying buy more. I am not surprised by this. All of these irrationalities tell us something very important: the bear is doing a great job of luring investors back…

Mainstream stock advisors are blowing air…telling us the U.S. economy is stalling due to cold weather. They say the economic chill caused by the uncharacteristically cold weather this year is only temporary. I don’t believe this for a moment. Sure, the weather had its impact. Consumers have been…

Carlo and I went to high school together about 30 years ago. We remained friends after we left school even though we went our separate ways. Our common thread is that we are both entrepreneurs running our own businesses. After years of not seeing each other, last night…

The second-quarter earnings reporting season is underway, and mainstream stock advisors have high hopes. But what we are seeing is “more of the same” of what we saw in last quarter’s S&P 500 company corporate earnings: revenues are lower; corporate earnings are mediocre, and share buyback programs are…

There has been increased volatility in gold bullion prices as investors run from precious metals. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, gold bullion’s 60-day historical volatility reached 28.9% on June 13. This was the highest level since December of 2011. Average volatility over the past five years for…

This shouldn’t be a surprise to the readers of Profit Confidential. According to an analysis done last week by the Wall Street Journal, in the first quarter of 2013, corporate earnings growth of companies in the key stock indices like the S&P 500 wasn’t really due to companies…

The housing market simply isn’t improving at the rate many in the mainstream media are telling us. Home prices are still significantly lower than what they were during 2005 and 2006. On its own, there is no housing market recovery. All we are witnessing is the mere reflection…

My advice: if you want to know what’s happening in the global economy, do not look to the key stock indices. They are misguiding investors into believing all is well, while the global economy stands on the verge of an economic slowdown. In these pages, I have written…

As the key stock indices continue to climb higher, optimism amongst investors and stock advisors rises to a dangerous level. According to the Advisor Sentiment tracked by Investors Intelligence, an indicator I follow to gauge optimism in the stock market, the number of stock advisors who are bullish…

The corporate earnings season for the first quarter of 2013 may not be as positive as optimistic stock advisors believe it will be. The reality is that companies in the U.S. economy are struggling to maintain corporate earnings growth, so they’re resorting to employee cost-cutting measures. Consider the…

Consumer confidence is the key to any growth in the U.S. economy. If it declines, U.S. economic prosperity becomes questionable, as a lack of consumer confidence directly impacts consumer spending. My worry: the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment for the month of March plunged to its…

The euphoria among stock advisors and investors alike seems to be increasing as key stock indices proceed to move into uncharted territories. I see it all as a bearish indicator. Just look at the chart below of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), often referred…

(Make sure to read my important comments today about the stock market in “Where the Market Stands; Where it’s Headed” below.) The U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012 for the first time in three and a half years.…

Mark Twain said it best: “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” (Source: Brainy Quote, last accessed January 30, 2013.) This is exactly what I see happening in the stock market these days—individual investors and stock advisors alike…

The U.S. housing market is becoming a main topic again in the mainstream media these days. I keep reading about how rising home prices will now get the U.S. economy going again. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects average existing home prices in 2013 to be around…