Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Posts Tagged ‘Stock Market Condition’

Stock Market Charts Looking Dangerous

By for Profit Confidential

The climate for the stock market is dangerous at this juncture, with all signs pointing to additional downside moves on the charts. Technology and small-caps are especially weak. The third quarter turned out to be the worst since the financial crisis began in 2008. The key stock indices, including the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, lost over 10% in the quarter.

Lots of Companies Doing Well, But
the Marketplace Isn’t Listening

By for Profit Confidential

You might not know it, but there is real strength in this market from a number of well-managed, dividend-paying stocks. When the broader market is gyrating and investor sentiment is weak, outperformance comes in the form of stability. Plenty of stocks in this market are outperforming the broader stock market and, in spite of all the worries about the sovereign debt crisis and the outlook for economic growth, the earnings picture continues to look good.

The Stock Market Is Big; This Is
Bigger and More Important to You

By for Profit Confidential

The bond market dwarfs the size of the stock market. I know what some of my readers are thinking right now, “If I don’t invest in U.S. Treasuries, it doesn’t matter to me if they go up or down.” This is wrong. The price direction of U.S. Treasuries is based on interest rate expectations. If bonds are rising or decreasing in price, it means that future interest rates will either rise or fall. The entire economy is based on interest rates. Higher interest rates would be catastrophic for the stock market, real estate market, consumers, and businesses.

Stock Market: What’s Really Going on Now

By for Profit Confidential

What a day for the market yesterday. Wherever we looked, we saw a sea of deep red. Stocks got chopped. Gold was down. Bonds were down. My dear reader, you’ll read opinions here in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL that you will not read elsewhere. (Maybe that’s why 30,000 people a month are flocking to us!). Here’s the bottom line as I see it…

A Stock Market That Just
Wants to Move Higher

By for Profit Confidential

Throw bad news at this stock market…it doesn’t matter…the assault on Dow Jones 13,000 continues its move ahead. Yesterday was another big upside day for stocks despite a series of what I believe were negative economic news reports.

Stock Market: The Forecast No One Is Talking About But Me

By for Profit Confidential

Michaelhas an opinion on the stock market, where it’s headed, which you're not reading or hearing anywhere else. This morning, he presents that forecast for the benefit of our new readers and to ensure that all our readers know where he stands on the stock market’s direction.  I have an opinion on the stock market, where it’s headed, which I’m not reading or hearing anywhere else. I’d like to present that forecast this morning for the benefit of my new readers and to ensure that all my readers know where I stand on the stock market’s direction.

Very quickly, a little history of where we have been…

One of the greatest bull markets in history, with a run in excess of 20 years, came to an end when the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked out at 14,164 in October of 2007.

From there, a vicious bear market took hold, knocking stocks down by 54% by March of 2009, when the Dow Jones hit 6,440. This is what I classify as Phase I of the bear market: the initial takedown.

Since March of 2009, we have been in a bear market rally, which has taken the Dow Jones up 93% as of this morning. We are presently in the 29th month of the bear market rally. These rallies can easily last three years. This is what I classify as Phase II of the bear market: the “luring.”

Phase II of a bear market is the period in which investors are lured back into the stock market under the pretense that all is well again.

Where we are now and where we are headed…

We are waiting for Phase III of the bear market to start…but it could still be some months off.

Phase III of the bear market will take stocks back down again, with stocks possibly testing their previous lows; in this case, 6,440 on the Dow … Read More

Economy and Debt: America on the Brink?

By for Profit Confidential

I’ll try my best not to be sarcastic this morning…

But what happened to all theU.S.jobs we were promised were headed our way? The Labor Department reported this morning that only 18,000 new jobs were created in June 2011, the lowest monthly job growth in nine months. The median Bloomberg estimate called for 105,000 new jobs for June.
Hear me out…

Stocks Looking Good After
Break at 50-day MA

By for Profit Confidential

We are at the mid-point of the year. The year started with a bang, but reversed course in May and early June, with stocks trending down on rising global risk.

At the mid-year, the key indices are up between four and seven percent in the first half, with hopes for a better second half, albeit the global market risk continues to be high.

Retail Stocks: Faring Well
Despite Jobs and Housing

By for Profit Confidential

So far, even without strong job growth and with continued weakness in housing, consumers continue to spend, which is helping to drive the economic renewal, albeit sluggishly. This is positive and clearly encouraging once the jobs and housing areas improve. The Fed realizes this.

Stocks That Still Have Some
Sizzle: China’s Mobile Sector

By for Profit Confidential

China is growing exponentially in many areas. An area that is growing at an incredible rate is the mobile phone sector, where growth is enormous and there are currently more than 842 million users. Think about it. There are more mobile users in China than the population of the U.S., the European Union, and Canada combined!

Stock Market Downgrade Makes Next Quarter’s Earnings Story That Much
More Attractive

By for Profit Confidential

Most economic analysis hasn’t been accurate over the last several years, and it’s partially due to the severity of the financial crisis, which almost brought about the complete collapse of the stock market. While history is replete with all kinds of recessions (some more severe than others), memories are short on Wall Street, because that’s what most people are doing there—working for short-term gains.

Stock Market Action Déjà Vu:
What’s Going on with Trading

By for Profit Confidential

It looks like the current trading action in stocks is the correction/consolidation that we should have had earlier in the year. Investor sentiment was perhaps too optimistic and economic reality has now caught up to the marketplace.

Current Stock Outlook: Why it’s Uncertain

By for Profit Confidential

April was a record for stocks. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for May, which has been characterized by uncertainty and a lean towards the downside.

Since May 2, stocks have closed lower in 11 of the 20 sessions to May 27. And to make matters worse, the buying was normally accompanied by light volume.

Stock Market Churns, but Business at These Companies Couldn’t Be Better

By for Profit Confidential

Economic data continue to be lackluster, and that’s why share prices are retreating. You can argue, however, that the current retrenchment in stocks is really just the consolidation or correction that the market’s been needing for a while. Regardless of how you call it, the reality at this time is that economic news isn’t a strong enough catalyst for investors to be buying stocks with any fervor.

Stock Market Eats Bad News for Lunch—Investors Still Buying

By for Profit Confidential

The stock market is handling the world’s two recent crises very well. The story in Libya seems far from over and Japan’s terrible tragedy is a decades-long recovery, but domestic stock prices didn’t go down that much and it’s a testament to the strength of overall market sentiment. Investors still want this market to go higher and first-quarter earnings will be the catalyst.

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