Posts Tagged ‘Stock Market Condition’
The climate for the stock market is dangerous at this juncture, with all signs pointing to additional downside moves on the charts. Technology and small-caps are especially weak. The third quarter turned out to be the worst since the financial crisis began in 2008. The key stock indices, including the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, lost over 10% in the quarter.
You might not know it, but there is real strength in this market from a number of well-managed, dividend-paying stocks. When the broader market is gyrating and investor sentiment is weak, outperformance comes in the form of stability. Plenty of stocks in this market are outperforming the broader stock market and, in spite of all the worries about the sovereign debt crisis and the outlook for economic growth, the earnings picture continues to look good.
The bond market dwarfs the size of the stock market. I know what some of my readers are thinking right now, “If I don’t invest in U.S. Treasuries, it doesn’t matter to me if they go up or down.” This is wrong. The price direction of U.S. Treasuries is based on interest rate expectations. If bonds are rising or decreasing in price, it means that future interest rates will either rise or fall. The entire economy is based on interest rates. Higher interest rates would be catastrophic for the stock market, real estate market, consumers, and businesses.
What a day for the market yesterday. Wherever we looked, we saw a sea of deep red. Stocks got chopped. Gold was down. Bonds were down. My dear reader, you’ll read opinions here in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL that you will not read elsewhere. (Maybe that’s why 30,000 people a month are flocking to us!). Here’s the bottom line as I see it…
Throw bad news at this stock market…it doesn’t matter…the assault on Dow Jones 13,000 continues its move ahead. Yesterday was another big upside day for stocks despite a series of what I believe were negative economic news reports.
I’ll try my best not to be sarcastic this morning…
But what happened to all theU.S.jobs we were promised were headed our way? The Labor Department reported this morning that only 18,000 new jobs were created in June 2011, the lowest monthly job growth in nine months. The median Bloomberg estimate called for 105,000 new jobs for June.
Hear me out…
So far, even without strong job growth and with continued weakness in housing, consumers continue to spend, which is helping to drive the economic renewal, albeit sluggishly. This is positive and clearly encouraging once the jobs and housing areas improve. The Fed realizes this.
China is growing exponentially in many areas. An area that is growing at an incredible rate is the mobile phone sector, where growth is enormous and there are currently more than 842 million users. Think about it. There are more mobile users in China than the population of the U.S., the European Union, and Canada combined!
Most economic analysis hasn’t been accurate over the last several years, and it’s partially due to the severity of the financial crisis, which almost brought about the complete collapse of the stock market. While history is replete with all kinds of recessions (some more severe than others), memories are short on Wall Street, because that’s what most people are doing there—working for short-term gains.
It looks like the current trading action in stocks is the correction/consolidation that we should have had earlier in the year. Investor sentiment was perhaps too optimistic and economic reality has now caught up to the marketplace.
April was a record for stocks. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for May, which has been characterized by uncertainty and a lean towards the downside.
Since May 2, stocks have closed lower in 11 of the 20 sessions to May 27. And to make matters worse, the buying was normally accompanied by light volume.
Economic data continue to be lackluster, and that’s why share prices are retreating. You can argue, however, that the current retrenchment in stocks is really just the consolidation or correction that the market’s been needing for a while. Regardless of how you call it, the reality at this time is that economic news isn’t a strong enough catalyst for investors to be buying stocks with any fervor.
The stock market is handling the world’s two recent crises very well. The story in Libya seems far from over and Japan’s terrible tragedy is a decades-long recovery, but domestic stock prices didn’t go down that much and it’s a testament to the strength of overall market sentiment. Investors still want this market to go higher and first-quarter earnings will be the catalyst.
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