Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

stock prices

Why Stock Prices Will Continue to Fall

By | October 15, 2014

Stock Prices Will Continue to FallNow that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 1,035 points (six percent) from its mid-September peak, the question investors are asking is “how far will she go?” For small-cap investors, the drama is greater, as the Russell 2000 Index has fallen 12.5% from its July peak.

Since 2009, every market pullback presented investors with an opportunity to get back into stocks at discounted prices. Even some editors here at … Read More

Why Stock Buybacks Will End Up Being a Terrible Investment for Companies

By | October 10, 2014

Great Stock Buyback MirageIn these pages, I have been very critical about stock buybacks by companies on the key stock indices. I see them as nothing more than a form of financial engineering used to manipulate per-share corporate earnings…and a bad investment for the companies buying their stocks back.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg and the S&P Dow Jones Indices, companies on the key stock indices are expected to spend $914 billion … Read More

One in Five Companies Warning on Earnings?

By | April 17, 2014

All of a Sudden, Quarterly Corporate Earnings Are in TroubleTraditionally, the first big American public company to kick off each new corporate earnings season is Alcoa Inc. (NYSE/AA). For the current quarter, Alcoa reported a net loss of $178 million, or $0.16 per diluted share. The company stated it had some special restructuring costs in the quarter; if you were to exclude them, its corporate earnings were $0.09 per share. (Source: Alcoa Inc., April 8, 2014.)

As usual, investors … Read More

The “Big Thing” for Companies This Year

By | January 24, 2014

Here Come the Job CutsLast year, the “big thing” with companies was buying back their shares to boost per-share corporate earnings. In 2013, share buybacks hit their pre-financial crisis high. If big public companies didn’t buy back so much of their own stock in 2013, per-share corporate earnings just wouldn’t be that great.

This year, I expect share buybacks to continue at the pace we saw in 2013. Another “big thing” companies will do … Read More

Why I Would Buy This $1,000 Stock Over a $10.00 Stock

By | September 30, 2013

Why I Would Buy This $1,000 Stock Over a $10.00 StockI was looking at the chart of priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ/PCLN) the other day, as the stock surpassed the $1,000 level. But why would I consider paying so much for a stock when there are cheaper comparables in the same online travel space?

It’s true; there are less expensive online travel stocks than priceline.com. But when you are stock picking, you should look at the comparative valuation and growth metrics, and … Read More

Stock Market Correction: Why it’s Limited

By | May 16, 2012

earnings seasonsUnless we get a major shock like war or something related to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, I don’t think the stock market is going to experience a lot of further downside. Stock prices might drift and then trade range-bound for a couple more months, but stock market valuations are fair and this provides a lot of cushion.

I do think there is more downside potential in gold, silver … Read More

What’s Really Going on with Big Banks

By | December 5, 2011

Big bank stocks have had a tough year in 2011. They’ve been beaten and bruised. Some big banks, like Belgian financial giant Dexia, have needed a government bailout. During the past week, all of the big banks have had a strong rally due to the added liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve and world central bankers, but do we really know what’s going on behind the scenes?

Why Michael’s Feeling Vindicated
this Morning

By | December 1, 2011

How do I feel this morning? Vindicated.
I’ve been writing on these pages for months that the stock market has been in a bear market rally that started in March 2009 and that stock prices would move higher before Phase III of the bear market ultimately sets in and brings stocks back down to their March 2009 lows. Over the past few weeks, I’ve been getting e-mails from my readers telling me that I’ve been in “bear market rally” mode for too long and that the markets were done…the bear market rally was over. And, presto, what do we get? A single-day 490-point jump for the Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday—its biggest one-day gain in years!

Debt Crisis Aside—Let’s Get Down to Business with the Real Numbers

By | October 28, 2011

The European debt crisis has not gone away. The fix comes only at the end of the debt crisis’ beginning. Frankly, I’m kind of annoyed it took this long for policymakers to act. The domestic stock market has suffered long enough because of a lack of firm action on the European sovereign debt crisis. It isn’t going away anytime soon, but thankfully, the debt crisis is now being addressed.

Dow Jones at 12,000 Again:
Here’s What Happens Next

By | October 28, 2011

The Dow Jones Industrial Average blew past the psychologically important 12,000 level yesterday. What a feat! Less than a month ago, on October 4, 2011, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at its lowest level since September 2010: 10,400. The widely followed stock index has gained 1,800 points, or 17.3%, in less than a month.

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