U.S. economy

New Numbers Suggest U.S. Economic Outlook Isn’t as Good as You Think

By Wednesday, July 1, 2015

U.S. Economic OutlookTraders received another piece of disappointing economic data, suggesting the U.S. economic outlook isn’t as rosy as many economists believe.On Tuesday, June 30th, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Midwest manufacturing activity declined last month. In May, the Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) climbed to 49.4 from 46.2 last month, the fourth straight month that the index has signaled a contraction. (Source: Institute for Supply Management, June 30,. Read More

Global Economy Headed for Misery; Be Careful if You Own Stocks

By Wednesday, July 1, 2015

global economyTo gauge activity in the global economy, I follow two indicators very closely: how sales at multinational Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE/CAT) are faring; and trade activity in the global economy.Global Economy Indicator #1The chart below plots the percentage change in three months rolling sales at Caterpillar Inc., a large American company that sells heavy equipment worldwide.As you can see from the chart, since December of 2013, sales at. Read More

Consumer Confidence Rises with U.S. Economy in June

By Friday, June 26, 2015

U.S. Economic Outlook: Consumer Confidence UpU.S. consumer confidence jumped up to a five-month high in June, signaling the U.S. economy is picking up momentum.The University of Michigan released its final results on consumer confidence for June 2015. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 96.1 in June, a six percent increase compared to May’s 90.7, and a more dramatic 16.5% gain year-over-year. June’s survey results also beat analysts’ expectation of the preliminary reading of 94.6. Read More

U.S. National Debt to Hit $36.0 Trillion; Congressional Budget Office Confirms?

By Friday, June 26, 2015

National DebtAccording to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. budget deficit will grow from three percent of gross domestic product (GDP) today to six percent of GDP by 2040. (Source: Congressional Budget Office, June 16, 2015.)With the CBO expecting GDP in 2040 to be $31.4 trillion, six percent of that number would equate to a budget deficit of $1.88 trillion!I cut some numbers and did the math. I. Read More

U.S. GDP Contracted Less Than Expected in Q1 2015

By Wednesday, June 24, 2015

U.S. GDP Upwardly RevisedThe U.S. economy contracted less than expected during the first quarter, boosted by strong household spending, inventories, and residential fixed investment.On Wednesday June 24th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third and final estimate of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2015. (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 24, 2015.)The BEA’s final estimate says that real GDP declined at an annualized. Read More

Interest Rates: Six Reasons They Are Going to Go Up

By Monday, June 22, 2015

Interest RatesThe Federal Reserve provides projections on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) four times each year; in March, June, September, and December.Just a few days ago, the Fed released its June projections. The Fed expects the U.S. economy to grow between 1.8% and two percent this year. (Source: Federal Reserve, last accessed June 17, 2015.) The mainstream will take this number and run with it. But what you won’t hear. Read More

Federal Reserve Hinting at Raising Rates This Year

By Thursday, June 18, 2015

federal reserve hinting at raising ratesThe powerful Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) appeared conflicted on Wednesday June 17, holding interest rates steady at historic lows while foreshadowing two rate rises later this year.Moderate improvements in the housing sector and household spending were offset by an unchanged level of unemployment. Inflation remained below the Fed target, mostly because of falling energy prices and cheaper imports. (Source: The Federal Reserve Press Release, June 17, 2015.)However,. Read More

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Declined for the Seventh Straight Week

By Wednesday, June 17, 2015

U.S. Crude Oil InventoriesEnergy prices fell on Wednesday, June 17 after official weekly U.S. oil inventories fell short of estimates that they would reflect strong demand from drivers and refineries.The U.S. Energy and Information Administration (EIA) reported crude inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels in the last week, compared to analysts’ expectations of a 1.6-million-barrel decrease. (Source: U.S Energy Information Administration, June 17, 2015.)In the same report for the week ending. Read More

U.S. Housing Drops 11.1% in May to 1.04 Million Annual Rate

By Wednesday, June 17, 2015

U.S. Housing DropsThe U.S. home-building industry has taken off this year to its best two months in more than seven years as it heads into summer. However, it began work on fewer houses in May following an April surge.On Tuesday, June 16, 2015, the Commerce Department reported the housing starts declined 11.1% to a 10.4 million annualized rate which followed April’s revised 1.17 million. (Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban. Read More

Recession Ahead for U.S. Economy; These Two Indicators Say Yes

By Wednesday, June 17, 2015

recessionSome very interesting news (or should I say warnings) to share with my readers today…If you’ve been reading Profit Confidential for some time now, you know I am predicting a recession in late 2015 or early 2016. A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP). We are almost half-way there (in respect to a recession happening) because we experienced negative GDP growth. Read More


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From: Michael Lombardi, MBA
Subject: Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors

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