Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

U.S. housing market

House Prices to Decline in 2015?

By | September 15, 2014

House Prices to Decline in 2015As we progress to the end of 2014, my skepticism towards the U.S. housing market increases. In fact, the fate of home prices in 2015 is in question.

I don’t expect an outright collapse of the housing market like the one we saw in 2007, but I see the momentum in housing prices that began in 2012 and picked up in 2013 dissipating for several reasons.

First, according to Fannie … Read More

Surprise: U.S. Housing Prices Now in a Decline

By | August 4, 2014

Three Strikes Against the U.S. Housing MarketThe S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, a measure of the housing market in key American cities, declined in May by 0.31% from April—the first monthly decline in home prices in 27 months. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed July 30, 2014.)

The number of homes being built in the U.S. is also falling.  In June, the annual rate of new homes being built in … Read More

A Major Problem with This Quarter’s GDP Numbers

By | August 30, 2013

U.S. economyIn its revised estimates of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2013, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 2.5%, up from its previous 1.7%. (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, August 29, 2013.)

GDP numbers being better than before will send a wave of optimism through the stock market—I can just hear stock advisors saying “Buy, … Read More

Best Explanation on the Fake Housing Market Recovery I’ve Seen

By | June 6, 2013

Housing Market RecoveryThe average American Joe isn’t participating in the U.S. housing market. As a matter of fact, according to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey, investors purchased 69% of “damaged” properties in April 2013, while first-time home buyers accounted for only 16% of “damaged” purchases.

It is very well documented in these pages how home prices in the U.S. economy are being driven upward by institutional investors. Affirming my stance … Read More

As Investors Flee Gold ETFs, Central Banks Jump in as Bigger Gold Buyers

By | March 11, 2013

Central Banks Jump in as Bigger Gold BuyersWhile mainstream financial and a growing number of economic forecasters focus on investors fleeing the gold bullion market, I am following in the footsteps of central banks around the world…

Investors pulled out a record amount of money from gold bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this past February. A total of $4.1 billion was withdrawn from gold bullion ETFs last month, the largest single-month outflow since January of 2011. (Source: ETF Read More

Short Sales and Foreclosure Jump to 20% of Home Sales; Institutions Support Housing Market with Major Buying

By | March 11, 2013

The chart below is the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index.

$!ESSPCS20RSA S&P case shiller 20 city stock chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

From the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, we can see that home prices are still down almost 30% from their peak in early 2007.

As the chart shows, a little change in home prices doesn’t really mean recovery in the housing market. On average, home prices in the U.S. economy will have to go … Read More

The Fed’s Running the Show and Risk Keeps Going Up

By | February 25, 2013

250213_PC_clarkThere just isn’t enough real economic growth out there for a rising stock market—at least not much more than has already been achieved. News from the Federal Reserve of the central bank considering how to end quantitative easing sent the stock market much lower, revealing just how artificial the whole system is.

I actually think the current stock market is fairly valued, but it shouldn’t be going up in value … Read More

Approved; Unlimited Credit Line for the Most Debt-Infested Country

By | January 28, 2013

The Most Debt-Infested CountryWould you lend money to a person who is unemployed, whose assets are declining, and who is heavily in debt? Even a person with minimal knowledge of finance would say, “No, thanks.”

But, the opposite of this happened in the U.S. economy on January 23, 2013, when Congress passed a bill “temporarily” suspending the limit of how much the government can borrow.

This bill gives the U.S. government the right … Read More

Realities of the New Housing Market; Institutions Buy and Rent Homes

By | January 25, 2013

Realities of the New Housing MarketHere’s the bottom line on the U.S. housing market and why it’s not really a recovery we can bank on:

The most important part of the U.S. housing market—first-time homebuyers—is missing from the action! We need first-time homebuyers in the market to see real growth in the U.S. housing market. After all, they are the ones who buy the fridges, stoves, dishwashers, and other goods that help increase consumer spending … Read More

Surprise: German Economic Growth Turns Bleak for 2013

By | January 21, 2013

Surprise German Economic Growth Turns Bleak for 2013Developing countries are supposed to be the fastest growing world economies. Sadly, according to a recent report by the World Bank, in 2012, developing countries put in their slowest economic growth rate in a decade. Developing countries saw their economic growth come in at only 5.1% for 2012. (Source: The World Bank, January 15, 2013.)

How about the more developed countries in the global economy?

“High income” countries in the … Read More

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