Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

U.S. real estate market

Why You Need to Think Long-term with Chinese Real Estate Stocks

By | October 4, 2012

Why You Need to Think Long-term with Chinese Real Estate StocksWhile the U.S. real estate market is showing some encouraging signs, there continue to be concerns towards a possible real estate crash in Mainland China. The Chinese government has been trying to corral the price increases in housing with some success.

My feeling is that the short-term risk is high, but there is excellent long-term growth in China’s real estate sector. (I also like China’s retail sector; read “Luxury Retailers … Read More

The Domino Effect That Will End this Stock Market Rally

By | March 30, 2012

commodity pricesReaders of Profit Confidential have made their voices heard on the topic of rapid inflation. In our recent survey, over 2,000 of our readers said they believe we are experiencing rapid inflation closer to 10%, while the official government Consumer Price Index (CPI) states that inflation is at 2.9%.

On these pages, I have been detailing the input cost (Cost of Goods) for manufacturers—higher commodity prices—from many parts of the … Read More

How Underwater Homeowners Are
Swapping Their Deeds to Leases

By | March 30, 2012

A few months ago, I wrote about the U.S. real estate market changing from a “buyers’ market” to a “renters’ market.” This is evidenced by the fact that home prices, on average, have fallen by 32% since 2006, while rents have risen 20%, on average, since that time (source: Wall Street Journal).

Not only were potential new home buyers afraid to enter the U.S. real estate market after the … Read More

The Land Debt Built

By | March 29, 2012

U.S. real estate marketAlong with municipalities struggling in this country, I’ve been warning readers about another potential debt catastrophe. Student debt in America has crossed the $1.0-trillion mark.

Student loan debt is now larger than the country’s total credit-card debt (source: Consumer Bankers Association). So much for encouraging consumer spending.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently reported that roughly 27% of student loans were more than 30 days past due. Don’t … Read More

Warning: Corporate Debt-to-Cash Reaches Record High

By | February 15, 2012

corporate profitsThere has been a lot of talk about all the cash U.S. corporations have accumulated since the credit crisis hit in 2008—about $2.0 trillion stashed in corporate America’s bank accounts.

From the White House to the average American, encouraging businesses to spend the cash they have accumulated due to strong corporate profits would translate into jobs being created, which would obviously help turn this economy around.

However, corporations have been … Read More

Think U.S. Housing Is in Trouble? Commercial Real
Estate’s Starting to Fall Apart, Too

By | February 15, 2012

Everyone wants to know where the bottom is for the U.S. real estate market. And I’ve argued that the U.S. economy cannot get out of its hole or grow until the U.S. real estate market heals and home prices start rising.

Inside the U.S. real estate market, however, there is the office market and retail space segment. They really reflect the health of the American business.

 The Fitch Rating Agency … Read More

Our Annual Forecast: How Much
Home Prices Will Fall This Year

By | February 2, 2012

For the past four years I’ve been singing the same tune…

The U.S. economy cannot recover unless the U.S. housing market recovers. As a past “real estate man,” (in my life), I’ve never seen an economic recovery unaccompanied by a real estate market recovery.

There was a lot of speculation going into 2011 that it would be a year for the U.S. housing market to find a bottom. Well, the … Read More

Exactly Where We Are in This
Secular Bear Market

By | December 23, 2011

In a secular bear market, which is where I firmly believe we are today, there are three phases:

A phase I bear market (often referred to as the first down-leg) brings stock prices crashing down. From its high of 14,164 in October 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed to 6,440 by March 2009—a 55% drop. This phase of the secular bear market is behind us.

A phase II bear … Read More

What’s Really Driving the Housing Market

By | December 21, 2011

There are two key variables that continue to hamper the country’s economic renewal—the housing market and jobs growth. Unfortunately, while both are showing some encouraging signs, I feel it will still be several years before we see sustained strength in both. Without jobs or the confidence of getting a job, you cannot expect people to buy houses.

The housing market is clearly better than it was when the subprime mortgage … Read More

May be the American Consumer
Isn’t Wrong This Time

By | December 9, 2011

Is this an alarming picture? The government has thrown trillions of dollars at saving the economy. Bernanke’s Fed has pulled rabbit after rabbit out of the hat to jump start the economy, keeping interest rates artificially low and significantly increasing the money supply.

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