Economic Analysis
The "End of History?" Geopolitical Risk is Higher Now Than During Cold War France and Italy, two pillars of the European Union (EU), are facing constitutional changes and/or elections, which could bring more anti-EU sentiment to the forefront. If either one of these two countries pulls out of the EU,…
More than Ever, Geopolitics Is the Key to Understanding Financial Markets These days, you may have noticed, investment professionals and financial advisors have lost much of their clout to political scientists. Certainly, the next few years will require more political than economic analysis, given the proverbial "white elephant" in…
On June 2, 2015, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on durable goods manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders for the month of April. According to this data, factory orders have declined in eight of the last nine months. Data suggests that manufactures are struggling with the rising U.S. dollar…
On Tuesday June 2, 2015, Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics office, released the eurozone area’s inflation data for May, which is at an annualized rate of 0.3%. (Source: Eurostat, June 2, 2015.) All Components Increased Except for Energy The positive 0.3% inflation in May is an improvement from…
On Monday, June 1, 2015, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on economic activity for the U.S. manufacturing sector. In May, new orders, production, employment, and inventories grew, while supplier deliveries slowed. (Source: Institute for Supply Management, May 1, 2015.) According to the report, economic activities in…
Greece’s government officials and representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB), and European Commission met on Thursday, May 28, 2015 to discuss Greece’s debt situation. When the meeting finally began, there was no start on drafting a deal because there was still too much…
For the week ending May 22, 2015, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 16.5 million barrels per day. This was 237,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.6% of their operable capacity last week. (Source: U.S Energy Information Administration, May 28,…
No matter how you look at it, the first-quarter earnings of S&P 500 companies do not look good. First-Quarter Earnings Explained Among the 447 companies that have reported first-quarter earnings for 2015, 71% beat their estimates. Moreover, 45% have sales above their estimates. (Source: Factset, May 8, 2015.)…
The U.S. manufacturing sector looks to be struggling. At the very least, U.S. manufacturing data suggests the U.S. economy is headed towards a slowdown. Industrial production in the U.S. fell for the fifth straight month in April 2015. According to the data from the Federal Reserve, industrial production…