Michael's Personal Notes

While I continue to hear politicians and the mainstream media tell me the U.S. economy is in a full-fledged recovery, I totally disagree with the notion. I believe the truth of what’s going on with the U.S. economy is the total opposite of what we are being fed…

As talk of the Federal Reserve pulling back on its quantitative easing program continues, the housing market is starting to show signs of stress, confirming my belief that the so-called housing market recovery was held up by the easy U.S. monetary policy. The announcement several weeks back from…

Here’s how a gradual slowdown in the global economy, something very few American or Canadian politicians are talking about, looks: South Korea reported that in the first half of this year, exports of ships fell 25.3%, steel exports fell 12% percent, auto exports are down 1.7%, petroleum products…

The second-quarter earnings reporting season is underway, and mainstream stock advisors have high hopes. But what we are seeing is “more of the same” of what we saw in last quarter’s S&P 500 company corporate earnings: revenues are lower; corporate earnings are mediocre, and share buyback programs are…

In the first quarter’s revised U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, we found consumer spending in the U.S. economy was slow, dragging U.S. economic growth lower. Going forward, I can’t help but to expect more of the same. We are already getting warnings from major financial institutions that…

I completely disagree with the notion that the housing market in the U.S. economy is improving. No doubt, we have seen home prices increase, but the price increases have been minor and restricted to certain geographical areas—but by no means do the price increases suggest there are actual…

Wherever we turn to in the media today, we hear or read the U.S. economy is witnessing a period of economic growth. The media and politicians cite an improving luxury car market, rising real estate prices, and jobs growth. On the contrary, and as I have been writing…

The Federal Reserve has made it very clear that it wants to stop quantitative easing. But it has also made it just as clear that it won’t begin to taper its quantitative easing program until certain conditions are met. While speaking in front of the Committee on Financial…

Face it: there is no real economic growth in the U.S. economy. The only reasons the key stock indices keep rising are nothing more than easy money and false optimism. They are anything but a key indicator, and you should not use them as one. The reality of…

Mark my words—gold bullion has a great future ahead. As the prices for gold bullion face severe headwinds in the short term, the fundamentals are getting stronger. The most important sign that makes me believe it is that central banks continue to buy more in spite of a…

Did the Federal Reserve just tell us it wants much higher inflation? In the most recent meeting minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it said: “Most [members], however, now anticipated that the Committee would not sell agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as part of the normalization process,…

I am watching the Chinese economy very closely, because any economic slowdown there could have an adverse effect on the already struggling U.S. economy. And here’s what I’ve seen: the stock advisors are not mentioning how critical the Chinese economy really is, how companies based here in the…

Suddenly, the automotive sector is red hot. According to Autodata Corporation, 1.4 million cars and light trucks were sold in the U.S. economy in the month of June. In fact, auto sales in the U.S. economy have increased 9.2% over the same period a year ago, and they…

The Chinese economy is showing traits that you should be watching. The country is experiencing an economic slowdown unlike any it has ever seen before. The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for China has been contracting for two consecutive months. In June, the indicator, which provides an overview…

A report from the National Institute of Retirement Security (NIRS) found that American households have a shortfall of anywhere between $6.8 trillion to $14.0 trillion when it comes to their retirement savings. Looking at their assets only in their retirement accounts, 92% of working households in the U.S.…

The indicators of global economy are yelling economic slowdown ahead, but they are being ignored. Consider the chart below of the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index: Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com This index tracks the price of industrial metals like copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead. The S&P GSCI…