Bear Market

The global markets are in bear market territory with the MSCI All Country World Index down more than 20% from a high set last May. It’s not surprising when you look at ongoing weakness in oil prices, weak global growth, and a growing number of global central banks…

Bear Market Coming: Analyst This $240-billion investment officer is predicting that technology stocks are poised to enter a bear market, with the NASDAQ Composite Index set to plummet further in 2016. Scott Minerd, chief investment officer for Guggenheim Partners LLC, says the NASDAQ Composite Index could crash this…

Despite a year or more of not so subtle economic warnings, Wall Street and corporate American CEOs have been reassuring us that the U.S. economy is strong. But anyone who reads Profit Confidential knows that the U.S. economy has been charging toward a recession for a long time…

For the benefit of my new readers, and as an update for my long-time readers, today I want to talk about exactly where I believe we are in the stock market.  After a 25-year bull market in stocks, which was fueled by a 25-year decline in interest rates…

In a secular bear market, which is where I firmly believe we are today, there are three phases: A phase I bear market (often referred to as the first down-leg) brings stock prices crashing down. From its high of 14,164 in October 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average…

While we’ve had an uptick in manufacturing, retail, and housing starts, economic data are not strong enough to get investors to participate in the stock market. There remains a sense of gloom hanging over the economy with the very real possibility of a U.S. recession happening again next…

How do I feel this morning? Vindicated. I’ve been writing on these pages for months that the stock market has been in a bear market rally that started in March 2009 and that stock prices would move higher before Phase III of the bear market ultimately sets in…

The S&P 500 Index did a good job of breaking out of its correction trading range (1,220 to 1,100), but it is now getting close to returning to this range due to the continued lack of certainty in Europe. What’s required over there is decisive action, both politically…

“Michael, you write about the stock market rising in the weeks ahead and actually ending 2011 higher than it started (see Stock Market: Where it Will End 2011), but on the other hand you often write about the pathetic state of the U.S. economy. How can they differ…

The top stocks in this market are large-cap, higher-dividend-paying companies with strong international operations. For speculators, gold stocks remain some of the best stocks in this stock market. The big companies have the cash and the economies of scale (to withstand the shocks to fundamentals and the stock…

As a reader of this column, you are aware of my opinion: A long-term bear market was started in October of 2007. Phase I of the bear market took stocks to a 12-year low on March 9, 2009. On March 9, 2009, we entered Phase II of the…

The American corporate profit machine is in full swing: Stock market darling Google Inc. (NASDAQ/GOOG) reported late last week that its third-quarter profit hit $2.73 billion on sales of $9.72 billion. Earnings and revenue grew 26% and 33%, respectively, from the same period of last year. This morning,…

California Governor Jerry Brown and his Democratic government made financial projections for California’s current fiscal year, which began July 1, 2011. Only three months into the current fiscal year, tax revenue for California has fallen $705 million. The risk? Based on the budget plan the Governor signed into…

Small-caps were the winners last year, advancing 25.28%. This was not a big surprise, as small companies generally perform better while the economy recovers from a recession. So far this year, the small-cap Russell 2000 is lagging, as we near the end of the third quarter, down 13.71%…

I’m so excited this morning; I can hardly control my excitement. Being the type of person who looks at the glass half-full as opposed to half-empty, I see yesterday’s sell-off in most investment categories as presenting investors with huge opportunities for profit. Let’s start with the stock market:…

So here we are: the last trading day of the month for stocks. And what has August brought us except a lot of pain during those 400- and 500-point single-day sell-offs on the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Depending on how stocks close today, stocks are ending this August…

The key in this bear market with stocks is to stick with resource stocks if you’re a speculator. I like large, blue-chip companies that pay high dividends for long-term investors. For risk-capital equity traders, the best action remains with gold stocks, and some of the best value now…

It’s time to rejoice; stocks have gained for two straight days! Of course, I’m kidding. The bounce has largely been due to technically oversold buying as traders try to determine whether gains are sustainable or if it is a “dead cat bounce” in a developing bear market. My…

You’ve got to love this guy, Hugo Chavez. The President of Venezuela had already nationalized the banks and the oil industry. Now he’s going after the gold. Chavez took to state television yesterday to tell his people that the gold industry is “run by the mafia,” so “We’re…

What a day for the market yesterday. Wherever we looked, we saw a sea of deep red. Stocks got chopped. Gold was down. Bonds were down. My dear reader, you’ll read opinions here in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL that you will not read elsewhere. (Maybe that’s why 30,000 people a…