Bear Market

All eyes will be on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on August 8 when we find out if the Fed will raise interest rates again, making it eighteen Fed rate increases in a row. While the futures market is slightly tipped towards Bernanke going for another rate increase, many…

The head of the largest bond fund in the world, Pacific Investment Management Co., said on Friday that he believes the bear market in bonds is over. That’s Bill Gross’s way of saying interest rates won’t be going up any more. Gross was probably looking at the numbers…

I need to share with you a question that's been on mind for several weeks now: Why would investors take the risk of buying big cap stocks like those in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that give a cash return of only 2.25% when they can buy U.S.…

The majority of investors view stocks and bonds as a means of making their money grow--the faster the better. Though I am just as concerned about the well-being of my financial assets as the next person, what really keeps my interest in markets is the fascinating interaction of…

Many years ago the weekly updates of the money supply numbers by the Fed, were anxiously anticipated and analyzed by market watchers as an important factor affecting financial markets. Those days are long gone and money supply numbers hardly ever get any mention by the financial media. When…

You've read my concerns about the inverted yield curve (that's when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates) and how an inverted yield curve has threatened the economy and stocks in the past. Today, I want to touch on an event that will occur in the next…

How do you inflate earnings? You cut jobs and lots of them. Back during the bear market years from 2000 to 2003, companies faced with declining revenues or flat growth and margin pressures did what was the easiest -- they axed jobs and sent employees packing.  In my…

When I'm bullish, I like to see positive trends develop. When I'm bearish, trading downward trends by shorting can generate some outstanding returns. But a trend that has been developing to the point where I'm concerned is the country's national debt.  I must say that each time I…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 162 points yesterday. And while this big-cap stock index is still down from its high of the year, and well down from its all time-high of about five years ago, the index has been experiencing a respectable rally since late October. While…

Who says the government doesn't watch the stock market? Some analysts found it surprising in last Friday's Presidential Debate when President Bush commented on the stock market. The President said that six months before he took office, the stock market started its worst decline in 70 years. Could…

A question I'm often asked from the old-time bearish crowd (of which I happen to be a member) is, "Michael, what's the economic difference between 1929 and today, and could what happened then happen again today?" This summer, I spent considerable time researching and analyzing the events prior…

In the same way that I follow home building stocks to gauge the housing market, I look to the stocks and actions of the biggest brokerage houses to get a feel for the investing climate. The stock brokerage business is extremely sensitive to upcoming trends in the general…

By the time you are reading today's PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, the news of the Fed's rate increase will already be old news. In fact, it was likely the most anticipated Fed rate move in recent memory. So the first leg has dropped, or has it? Many market watchers are…

You've probably heard the news about the 1905 Picasso painting "Boy With a Pipe," which sold at Sotheby's for $104 million last week--a record for a painting sold at auction. I guess the painting was bought by a Man With Lots of Dollars. Funny thing is, when it…

If you've been reading my PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL for some time now, you are obviously familiar with my bearish attitude towards the stock market. My bottom line is that I believe we are in a bear market, which started in 2000. In my opinion, the recent stock rally we…

Just after the NFL Super Bowl, a sporting friend of mine called to tell me that we should be going into a bear market. "Why is that?" I asked, even though I tend to be 'overly bearish' and was in complete agreement with him. He went on to…

The penny stock gold rush is making investors rich again with actual 3-month gains of 470%... 585%... and 640%! Remember how excited Wall Street was at the beginning of the recovery as the indices finally headed up? For the 6 months following the March 2003 lows, the... DOW…