Have you ever driven uphill in bumper-to-bumper traffic? Every time you ease off the brake, the car rolls back. Then you push the accelerator, and it moves…back to the same place.
Ethereum is stuck in a similar position based on recent price trends. A dip, followed by a rise, followed by a dip, followed by a rise, and on and on it goes…
This pattern has kept Ethereum locked around the $300.00 level, which is prompting investors to ask the question: How long will this nightmare last?
The Answer: Probably till the Bitcoin hard fork.
Scheduled to take place around November 18, this Bitcoin split could change the price dynamics between ETH and BTC. At least temporarily.
It is probably Bitcoin’s biggest test since, well, ever really.
Usually, disagreement over a proposed update to Bitcoin leads to one group splintering off from the original blockchain to become a less-loved altcoin. This is more serious.
The debate over this upgrade (SegWit2x) is like a blood feud. It is Hatfield and McCoy, Montague and Capulet, Lannister and Stark—each side wants to be the main Bitcoin.
This could mean that as we draw closer to November 18, investors will start to forget about Bitcoin’s rally. The glow of its addition to the CME derivatives market will start to dim, and suddenly it will look like a currency on the brink of being torn in two.
At that point, it’s possible that we will have a reverse-rotation of Bitcoin to altcoins. Investors could start to unwind their concentration in BTC, which has risen to ridiculous levels in recent weeks.
In fact, we may be seeing the effects of this already. The Ethereum to Bitcoin rate rose for the second straight day today. It appreciated 3.49% against BTC after posting roughly six-percent gains yesterday.
Put another way, don’t just look at the Ethereum to USD exchange rate. We know that it only rose 1.05% to $302.05, but it is not telling the whole story.
Daily Ethereum Chart
I refuse to panic unless we’re two months out from the Bitcoin hard fork and nothing has changed. That would be a problem, but this…this is just a temporary setback.
Just take a look at Ethereum’s fundamentals and daily Ethereum news—they are both quite positive. Those are the factors that will feature prominently in our $1,000 ETH price forecast, much more than a solitary Bitcoin split.