Ripple News Update
One of my Ripple news updates stirred up controversy on Reddit yesterday. I want to address some of the comments made before returning to our regularly scheduled programming.
Reddit user “stalker474” started the thread. He seemed surprised at my $10.00 XRP price prediction probably because XRP prices have trended down in recent weeks.
A few other users came to my defense, saying that “To be fair, he held to his $2 by the end of 2017, both when it was $0.10, and when it was $0.20 in early december. He ended up being right.” (Source: “We maintain our $10.00 Ripple price prediction for 2018″ This guy doesn’t give a F,” Reddit, January 22, 2018.)
I appreciate the vote of confidence.
But just to clarify matters, my original forecast for 2017 was $1.00. I also predicted that XRP prices would reach $2.00 in 2018. Obviously, those estimates fell short of reality.
XRP hit $3.84 in the opening week of January. Since that time, I upgraded my Ripple price prediction to $10.00. And I’ve stuck to that forecast despite plunging prices and heightened market panic.
Ripple (XRP) Price Chart
Why? Well, in part, because I underestimated the market reaction to Ripple putting 55 billion XRP in an escrow account. And, in part, because I underestimated the total investment flowing into cryptocurrencies. Those effects were impossible to accurately forecast.
In fact, cryptocurrencies are largely immune to financial modeling.
It’s not “difficult” to perform a discounted cash flow analysis of Bitcoin, it’s impossible! There are no cash flows, no revenues, no earnings, because it is not a company.
This is hard for people to grasp. Everyone wants certainty. We’d all like to walk around with an ace up our sleeve, but that simply doesn’t exist.
You can put faith in technical analysis. You can study charts galore. But charts do not include exogenous factors; they don’t know what they don’t know, in other words. And that makes them faulty at best and misleading at worst.
I choose a more strategic approach. I let fundamentals shine a guiding light for future value. It’s what led me to bullish positions on XRP at $0.17, ETH at $195.00, IOTA at $0.44, NEM at $0.21, and many other profitable recommendations. It works.
And because it works, I stand firm when prices fall. I do not change my opinion for the sake of branding or political expediency. That would be wrong. Also, I do not own any assets I write about because that would be a conflict of interest.
Analysts should be impartial.
This is another sorely underappreciated point in cryptocurrency coverage. Everything thinks it’s a good idea to trust the person who will profit from your excitement. I happen to think it creates toxic incentives.
In any case, I’m open to criticism. Please continue to debate and discuss these ideas.
Investing is a risky business, but the upside is immense. We continue to believe that XRP is following a rocky road up to $10.00 this year. Tune in tomorrow where I’ll go into more detail about XRP’s long-term value, bank liquidity, and the role of digital assets in the financial system.