The Woes of the U.S. Dollar and the Opportunity
In late April, on news the U.S. economy grew in the first quarter of this year at the slowest pace in four years, the U.S. dollar fell to an all-time low against the Euro. The dollar is also at a 15-year low against the British Pound.
The causes for the freefall in the U.S. currency: Blame weak economic growth, rising debt, an out-of-whack trade deficit, and the cooling housing market. The bottom line is the highest interest rates in the G7, those of the U.S., are not helping support the dollar.
But opportunity cometh. The U.S. dollar has been particularly weak against a currency right in its own backyard: The Canadian dollar is now at a 29-year high against the U.S. dollar. Yes, the Canadian economy continues to perform better than that of the U.S., but it is the vast and increasing demand for oil, precious metals, and resources that is pushing the Canadian dollar further ahead.
I expect the Canadian dollar will soon rise to about equal to the U.S. dollar in terms of currency valuation. Back to the opportunity… I’ve often written about the benefits of Americans buying quality stocks on the TSX, the Toronto Stock Exchange (the Canadian equivalent of the NYSE).
The TSX has been breaking to new record highs for most of this year. It could very likely be the best performing stock market index of 2007. And if you haven’t bought stock on this exchange yet, the opportunity continues to present itself.
What stocks should you buy? Precious metal and resource stocks are my favorites on the TSX. If you believe oil prices will continue to rise, there are plenty of oil stocks on the TSX. Americans investing in the TSX have the added bonus of being able to profit from the rise of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. I’ve been preaching this strategy for years, and it has been working extremely profitably for investors. I believe the strategy of Americans buying quality stocks on the TSX continues to be a solid investment strategy. The woes of the U.S. dollar are presenting opportunities for us.