What a few months it has been for gold. With war worries in Libya to debt concerns in Europe and the United States, along with rising demand out of China and India, it appears to be the perfect storm for driving gold prices higher. In fact, the break at $1,500 was much sooner than I had expected and, based on the chart, prices could go even higher, albeit the buying may be somewhat ahead of itself and hence vulnerable to some profit-taking.
The June gold broke to a record high of $1,535.10 on April 28 and is looking to go higher. The chart showed a bullish inverse head and shoulders formation in March. Prior to this, there was a bullish V formation in January and early February. The June gold made a strong breakout at the $1,440 resistance that was in place since November 2010 in early April.
Along with the upward push, the trading volume in the June gold been surging during the breakout and this is bullish. The contract is above its 50-day moving average (MA) of $1,441. The bias remains bullish. The moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) has been flashing a buy signal since early April; but be careful, as we could be in store for a reversal.
Investing in gold is a safe haven play when the market risk rises.
Gold has rallied in each of the last 10 years and shows a beautiful bullish price chart. My gold advice would be to accumulate gold on weakness.
The situation in Libya could worsen and there are also tensions in Iran and other Middle East countries. This means added global risk. Oil is trading at over $112.00 per barrel on the threat of more disruption in oil from Libya and other oil-producing countries.
In my view, the key determinant of how gold will fare will depend on the direction of stocks along with the geopolitical tensions.
If the Middle East situation worsens, it would drive up oil prices, which would impact economic growth at a time when the economies continue to be at risk.
Also, don’t forget about the mounting debt and deficit in the United States. The country has over $14.0 trillion in debt and is paying billions in interest daily. Many states are struggling to make ends meet and are looking at severe cuts in the state budgets.
Silver has also followed gold higher, with the May silver futures contract above $48.00 an ounce. It appears set to take a run at $50.00. The near-term picture with silver is also extremely bullish on strengthening Relative Strength, but at the same time overbought. Silver is a play on the economic recovery, as it’s found in electronics.
I also like copper as a play on the recovering global economies, especially in industrial applications and housing.
My advice on playing the commodities is to buy gold stocks, silver stocks, and oil stocks on weakness.