Here’s a secret for gold investors and a tip for “wannabe” gold investors.
First the secret: While this spring most wildlife is coming out of hibernation from the winter, gold is moving into hibernation. You see, gold, believe it or not, is a seasonal commodity. Typically, gold bullion prices do not move much from the beginning of April until the start of September.
Some proof: Last year, gold bullion started April at about $650.00 U.S. per ounce. By September, gold was at $700.00 — five months, and gold went up an average of just $10.00 a month. Same thing in 2006, as gold was at $600.00 an ounce at the beginning of April and still at $600.00 at the start of September 2006.
In April 2005, gold traded at $420.00 an ounce. By September of the same year, it was up a mere $20.00 to $440.00. In 2004, the metal started April at $400.00 an ounce and was still at $400.00 at the beginning of September 2004.
Why the seasonality factor for gold bullion? I really don’t know, as I see the metal becoming less important as an ingredient of jewelry and more important as an alternative store of wealth to the U.S. dollar.
What I do know is that I do not fight the tape or the trend. The reality is that, over the past five years, the biggest moves for gold bullion have been the period beginning in September and ending in March. Same with gold stocks… they are not big movers in the summer but can be quite volatile from the fall to spring.
And that brings me to my tip.
I’m a big believer that gold prices over the next couple of years will continue their long-term upward trend. So, if you have been reading my columns and are thinking of buying your first gold stock (or maybe accumulating a larger position in gold stocks), you may want to play the seasonality game and look at the metal more seriously in late August, early September of this year.