Only Fools Rush in, Again

Thirty-one years ago Friday, Elvis Presley passed away. One of my favorite songs of the King of Rock and Roll, as he was called, was “Only Fools Rush In.” In that song, the first lyric goes, “Wise men say only fools rush in.”

I’m sure just the smart money (the “wise men”) in the stock market was saying exactly that on Friday, as gold bullion fell a whopping $22.80 to $792.10 an ounce and latecomers to the gold bull market licked their wounds. Here are two things you need to know about the bull market in gold bullion and quality gold stocks.

Is the long-term bull market in gold bullion that started in 2002 over? My flat out answer is no, it still is a gold bull market and I would buy quality gold stocks on any pullback.

For the bull market in gold bullion to be over, the yellow metal would have to fall below $675.00 an ounce, which is the mid-point between the $300.00 low at which the bull market started in 2002 and the subsequent high of $1,050. My opinion is that we have a much better chance of eventually seeing gold back over $1,000 than we do of seeing it below $675.00 and ounce

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Secondly, and as I have written extensively in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL in the recent past, the last several years have been quite seasonal for gold bullion prices. The metal tends not to move much in price from the spring to the fall of each year.

I look at pullbacks in gold prices as an opportunity to buy quality gold stocks at bargain prices. Many quality gold-producing stocks have been depressed by the recent weakness in gold bullion prices and thus present prices we haven’t seen in months.

As oil prices fell over the past week from their ridiculous high, the American dollar strengthened against other world currencies and this event sent the price of gold bullion lower. There is no escaping the fiscal issues facing the American economy today, as the budget deficit for 2009 will likely be a new record. The more debt the U.S. economy piles on, the less viable the U.S. dollar is in the eyes of foreigners, and hence the stronger the price of gold bullion.