The Long Awaited Correction

Veteran readers of this column are well aware of my core investing belief that no investment goes straight up or down. In all bull and bear markets there are corrections which occur. And, while many investors look at these corrections as nerve-racking, forcing many to second-guess their choices, I look at corrections as a second chance for investors.

In bull markets, corrections happen to scare the late comers out. In bear markets, corrections, on the upside, happen to give investors a false sense of security-that the bear market might be over.

Personally, I’ve been waiting for a price correction in the gold bullion market to happen for months. It’s my belief that correction started yesterday when gold was down almost US$20 an ounce on the day, or just over 3 percent. Many gold stocks were down about 6 percent– an indication gold investors got spooked and started heading for the hills.

We need to put the strength of the current bull market in gold bullion in perspective:

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— Gold is up over 100% since late 2001. That’s a gain of about 25% a year.

— In the last three months, gold bullion prices have risen by about 25%. That’s more than the metal has risen in price in the preceding twelve months.

Activity in the gold market was getting hot and heavy. The popular media was starting to pick up on the gold bullion rally, gold conferences were starting to sell out, banks and brokerage houses were starting to come out with very bullish gold bullion predictions. And that’s when corrections happen.

But, despite the price correction in gold yesterday, I believe very few investors have taken a gold position in their portfolios. I’m looking at yesterday’s gold price retreat as an opportunity.

Technically, I see minor price support for gold bullion at US$545 an ounce and major price support at US$490 per ounce. I’d be a light buyer of gold stocks if bullion prices reach the minor resistance and a strong buyer if gold gets below the US$500 an ounce level.

NEWSFLASH-President Bush has sent Congress a $2.77 trillion spending plan. Deficit for this year was estimated by the Bush Administration to be a record $423 billion.