What’s Really Happening in the Stock Market

You may recall early last week when I wrote an article, “A Roaring Start to the New Year,” and talked about how little faith I had in the big-cap stock rally that started at the beginning of January. I even gave my “logical reasons on why the rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be short-lived.”

Well, the rally that started in big-cap stocks came to a grounding halt this past Friday with the Dow Jones falling 1.96% — the popular index’s biggest one day drop in almost three years.

Something else — very important — happened on Friday. The yield curve inverted Friday for the second such incidence in less than two months. For a time on Friday, you could have bought a two-year U.S. bond that that would have yielded more than a 10- year U.S. bond. In the past, when this has happened, the U.S. has sunk into a recession.

While I’m not going to think too much about a yield curve that has failed to significantly diverge, I’m going to listen to what the big- cap stock market told me on Friday past.

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In my opinion, Friday was a terrible day for the stock market, causing severe technical damage to big-cap and blue-chip stocks. Not only were moving averages broken by the popular indices, but, more significantly, the Dow Jones closed below its lowest level of the preceding month. And with 29 of the Dow Jones’ 30 stocks being down on Friday, I have absolutely no reason to change my bearish stance on the general stock market.

Most of the popular financial media reading I read this weekend said Friday’s correction was overdue… that everything is good in the stock market. I find this hard to believe.

What’s really happening in the stock market?

Too few people are writing or talking about why gold is moving up so rapidly. And too few people are writing or talking about the debt crisis in America. But if you ask me, if you look at the price action of gold bullion… if you look at how damaging our debt crisis could be to the economy and the U.S. dollar… you’ll have your answer on where big company stocks are headed.