Buy On a Dip

What a truly awesome display of buying momentum shown by Internet search engine Google Inc. (NASDDAQ/GOOG) in recent weeks after the rapidly rising Internet star broke the $500 level to an intraday high of $513 on November 22. I still remember when Google first traded on its IPO launch back on August 19, 2004 when the shares could have been bought for a cheap $98!

 The return has been simply amazing for a stock that only debuted two years ago. At that time, the $100 IPO price was thought to be somewhat overly ambitious. We now know it was not. And one of the biggest Google bulls on the Street, James J. Cramer of TheStreet.Com Inc. (NASDAQ/TSCM) believes the stock has more significant upside ahead of it. And I would side with Cramer. The Street range for the stock is between $415 and $600 with mean price target of $536.65 as of November 28, 2006.

 I have written about Google in the past, saying that despite its rapid price appreciation, the stock’s valuation given its superlative growth potential is not out of whack versus its peer group. In fact, even at the current price of $488, the stock does not look overvalued relative to its peer group.

 Take a look at its growth predictions for Google versus that of Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ/YHOO) and eBay Inc. (NASDAQ/EBAY). Google’s EPS growth estimates this year are estimated at a whooping 81% versus a 21% year-over-year decline for Yahoo and an 18.6% increase for eBay. Now take a look at Google’s estimated earnings growth over the next five years at 32.5% versus 25% and 20% for Yahoo and eBay, respectively. Google is the top Internet stock at this time. Its growth is spectacular and, given what we have seen so far, the numbers may even be conservative.

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 Some of you may be tempted to jump in, but you may want to wait and buy on a dip as the stock is technically overbought. I would even suggest playing the option market vis-à-vis call options or bullish call spreads in an effort to reap the upside potential, but at the same time manage the risk. And if you want to short the stock, I advise otherwise as the momentum risk is too high.