We are currently seeing a rotation into blue chip and large-cap stocks from technology and growth stocks as investors reduce their exposure to risk.
On the big board, the new-high/new-low (NHNL) ratio on the NYSE continues to be bullish with the last 47 straight sessions at above 70%, including 41 of the last 43 sessions at over 80%. Watch if the positive sentiment holds to help confirm the rally. On the tech side, the NHNL on the NASDAQ has been weak in recent sessions with six straight sessions at below 70%, which could suggest more softness ahead.
The near-term signals for the NASDAQ are bullish, and the relative strength is good. Breadth as indicated by the advance/decline line (A/D) has been mixed with five of the last 10 sessions at below 1.0. The five-day MA has declined to below 1.0 at 0.95, which is below the 30-day and 200-day MA of 1.10 and 1.17, respectively.
The CBOE NASDAQ Volatility Index or VXN — a barometer of near-term market volatility based on NASDAQ 100 index option prices — is generally viewed as a contrarian indicator. A high VXN indicates maximum fear and a possible market bottom. A low VXN indicates reduced apprehension and a possible market top.
The five-day VXN at 16.74 was flat versus the prior week’s reading of 16.70. The five-day reading is just above the 30-day MA of 16.72 but below both the 50-day and 200-day MA of 17.52 and 17.65, respectively. The continued lower readings could indicate a near-term top.
On the blue chip side, the near-term technical picture for the large- cap DOW remains bullish. The relative strength is strong, but the index is overbought.
In the broader market, the near-term technical picture for the S&P 500 is bullish, and the relative strength is strong but the index is overbought.
The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX is a barometer of near-term market volatility based on the S&P 500 index option prices. The five-day CBOE Volatility Index at 13.48 is slightly higher than the 13.05 of the prior week. It is below the 50-day MA of 13.69 but above the 200-day MA of 12.23. The picture is neutral.
On the small-cap side, the near-term technical signals for the Russell 2000 — a barometer of small-cap performance and the economy — is bullish. The relative strength is neutral.