Tilray Stock Forecast: Is TLRY Stock a Good Long-Term Pick?

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Tilray Stock Forecast

One of the most exciting developments in the marijuana industry of late has been the first ever marijuana initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq by Tilray Inc (NASDAQ:TLRY). Since it went public on July 18, Tilray stock has had a very eventful start to its life on the open market.

Tilray stock surged by nearly 80% overnight only to fall about 45% in the next week, then steadily climbed double-digits over the next few days.

This was to be expected. While the numbers may have been higher than investors anticipated, the hunger for a marijuana IPO on a major U.S. exchange was and is very real. We’re talking about countless investors eagerly awaiting to get in on the lucrative marijuana market but wanting to do so on the exchanges they feel comfortable with. As such, a result like the one Tilray stock is experiencing makes perfect sense.

But now the question falls to the investors on whether Tilray stock still has value to be gained after the initial rush that saw early investors grinning from ear to ear.

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In my mind, there are far too many question marks around the true value of Tilray stock to endorse the company long term.

While that doesn’t mean you can’t make money from investing in Tilray, I do have my reservations.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Chief among them is what the actual market price of the company is. Hype generated a boon that inflated share value. Now we’re seeing day traders and opportunistic buyers send the company on an ebb and flow that I imagine will be consistent for months.

The bigger question is what the company’s worth will be when the luster of the IPO fades and we get back to the finer details of things like earnings reports, partnerships, production capacity, etc.

My Tilray stock forecast is then one where the company will see many weeks of five-point losses and gains, punctuated by a steep decline here and there as it gets priced out by the market.

In a few weeks or perhaps months, I would reassess and take a look at the finer details on Tilray stock.

Should it appear to have hit its proper value and stabilized, then I’d think about investing long-term in Tilray stock.

If, on the other hand, it’s still being batted back and forth, then I would leave it to day traders to try and make money from the shares.

Analyst Take

Hype can only propel a stock for so long. Tilray is no exception.

While the company’s IPO is an indisputably resounding success, there are still many concerns about Tilray stock long-term.

As such, I would play the wait-and-see game before jumping in full hog on the company.