Under Armour is No Google
A few weeks back, I commented on the renewed interest in the IPO market in 2005. I also mentioned what was widely expected to be one of the hottest IPO plays this year. The stock I was talking about was Under Armour Inc. (NASDAQ/UARM) — a Baltimore-based synthetic athletic clothing maker that has been attracting somewhat of a cult following among athletes.
Although the majority of you likely failed to get in at the IPO price of $13, which was still a jump from the target range of $7.50 to $9.50 initiated by a group led by Goldman Sachs, it was quite evident that the underwriters were very hot on the issue. By setting the IPO price target low, they generated added buying interest in the stock.
Did you get some shares from your broker? Probably not. Unless you are a major client, the chances of you getting these pre-IPO shares were slim to none. For those who were able to get their hands on some Under Armour shares, they had a pretty easy, very profitable trade.
As widely expected, there was so much pent up demand for the IPO that the shares were halted on their first day of trading last Friday. By the time the stock began to trade, it opened up at a whopping $31 — 138% above the $13 IPO price — a pretty good windfall for investors who got in early.
Under Armour turned out to be the second best debut of any IPO this year, after Chinese search engine Baidu.com, Inc. (NASDAQ/BIDU). Since last Friday, the shares have been stagnant, and they fell below $23 last Tuesday, as trading interest in the stock declined significantly as shown by the lower trading volume. The pent up demand is over. Failing to buy the stock at a lower price has sent the majority of traders packing. I believe the easy money has been made in this stock, so you may want to look elsewhere. If you really want the stock, you may want to wait to buy on dips.
As for me, I’m not interested at the current price — I will now evaluate the company’s fundamentals to determine a fair market price for the stock. Let me remind you that the athletic clothing market is extremely competitive, including heavyweights such as Nike Inc. (NYSE/NKE).
It will be also interesting to see how the Street rates Under Armour, as well as what target price will be assigned to this stock. One thing is sure, Under Armour is no Google Inc.