An economy is said to be technically in a recession when it experiences two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The biggest portion of the U.S. GDP calculation is consumer spending; then comes investments, government spending, and, finally, net of exports. By far, consumer spending…
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its growth forecast for the global economy. It says the world economy will now grow by 3.6% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015; it grew at three percent in 2013. (Source: International Monetary Fund, April 8, 2014.) I see the IMF…
In 2013, consumer spending accounted for 67% of U.S. gross domestic product. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed April 2, 2014.) It’s plain and simple: economic growth cannot be achieved unless consumers are spending. And unfortunately, higher prices and lower discretionary spending are…
The stock market in France has been on a tear! Below, I present a chart of the French CAC 40 Index, the main stock market index in France. Looking at the chart, we see the French stock market is trading at a five-year high. With such a strong…
Consumer spending in the U.S. economy is highly correlated to consumer confidence. If consumers are worried about the economy, they pull back on their spending. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 1.63% in February from January. (Source: Conference Board, February 25, 2014.) And we see the…
We all know how bad this winter has been so far. The harsh weather across the majority of the country has impacted jobs growth, commerce, housing, and consumer spending. Of course, with the spring season on the horizon, we’ll soon see if the weak economic metrics mentioned were…
In the first five weeks of this year, investors bought $22.0 billion worth of long-term stock mutual funds. (Source: Investment Company Institute, February 12, 2014.) But as investors poured money into the stock market, hoping to ride the 2013 wave of higher stock prices, stocks did the opposite…
In 2013, the U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), rose at an average rate of 1.9% compared to 2.8% in 2012. And as it stands, GDP may slow further in 2014. What makes me think this? In January, U.S. industrial production declined by 0.3% from…
As I have been pointing out to my readers, the “official” unemployment numbers issued by the government are misleading because they do not include people who have given up looking for work and those people with part-time jobs who want full-time work. In January, there were 3.6 million…
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently shutting down numerous Chinese shell companies trading on U.S. exchanges, such as the over-the-counter market and the highly speculative Pink Sheets stock exchange. This is good and is something the SEC needs to continue to pursue and enforce, so domestic…
February 4 was a terrible day for key stock indices. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by more than two percent each and broke below important support levels. That day was also Janet Yellen’s first day on the job as chief of the most…
Don’t for a second believe consumer spending in the U.S. economy is improving! J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE/JCP) has announced it will be closing 33 stores in the U.S. economy. By doing this, the retailer will save about $65.0 million a year starting in 2014. 2,000 employees…
Investors were happily greeted with a surprise on Tuesday after the reporting of better-than-expected retail sales numbers that suggest the consumer spending market may be alive and well after all. In December, the headline retail sales reading jumped 0.2%, which was above the Briefing.com estimate calling for a…
In New York last week, 1,500 people lined up for 50 apprenticeship positions as painters and decorators. These are union jobs, and only 500 applications are being accepted. Some hopefuls lined up in front of the District Council 9 office for days in extremely cold weather. If they…
All of a sudden, auto sales are declining… Auto sales in the U.S. economy declined to an annual rate of 15.4 million units in December. In November, this number stood at 16.41 million units—a decline of more than six percent. (Source: Motor Intelligence, January 3, 2014.) Analysts were…
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did something that many on Wall Street including myself did not believe he had the inclination to do: he began the tapering process in his final meeting as the head of the most powerful central bank in the world. The Federal Reserve will…
It’s less than two weeks prior to the Christmas break, and with the New Year on the horizon, that means it’s time to sit down and really re-evaluate your portfolio. Now, we could see Santa appear and deliver our Christmas goods (i.e. additional gains) into January. What a…
Auto sales in the U.S. economy look solid on the surface. According to Autodata, in November, the annual rate of auto sales in the U.S. economy was 16.41 million units. In October, the annual rate of auto sales was reported to be 15.23 million and in the same…
Finally some good news in the U.S. jobs market? The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that, in November, 203,000 jobs were added to the U.S. jobs market. As a result, the unemployment rate went down to 7.0% from 7.3% in October. In addition to this, the…
